You May Need Xanax

If it's Sunday this must be "Week in Review"; well, at least at the NY Times.  Whilst munching, I accomplished my weekly obligatory perusal, and found a Robert Shiller article, which discussed his Case/Shiller (why does he get all the media attention, when he was the junior partner?) index.  He's also written up for a speech he recently gave.  In the article, he's quoted:  "It's impossible for statisticians to forecast," he said. "I honestly don't know."

Coming from him, I am stunned.  The value of housing is historically tied to median income with a tether.  That is why, as I have said countless times here, that by 2003 I was saying (although long before I took a public forum) the US economy was headed into the muck.  Housing prices had already outstripped its historical relationship to median income.  Housing prices will continue to fall until we get *at least* to that level.

It's also worth remembering that median income is commonly reported at the household point, while what really matters is median individual income.  That number is somewhat harder to come by. 

In the event, I'm going to bite the bullet and create Young's Depression Indicator, which will be a leading indicator driven by median income data.  There may be a similar index/indicator out there.  Should I find such, I'll cede the YDI to the rubbish bin.  For now, expect it.