01 May 2013

Shilling For Shiller, Part the Third

Sorry for the delay; I missed my Saturday Times. Here's Shiller's third part. It's largely, surprise, a re-hash of much of what I've been scribbling about: housing isn't an investment, as that word is generally connoted. The vig comes from the mortgagee's real income, not from productivity fecundity of said building.
Forecasting is indeed risky, because of factors like construction productivity, inflation, and the growth and bursting of speculative bubbles in both home prices and long-term interest rates. The outlook is so ambiguous that there is no single answer to the question of housing's potential as a long-term investment.

It ain't no investment. Full stop.

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