03 November 2016

Data, Data Everywhere

A couple of interesting pieces in today's news on the data front. Some may recall the Triage piece from the early days of these endeavors. The point being to parse factors driving voter motivation to mete out cash in the most effective way. There's been more reporting during this election on "algorithmic modeling" in campaign management. You read it here half a decade ago.

So, today one side of the election is making fun of Big Data and widely reported public polls. Messina makes the case for Little Data. It sounds something along the lines of the Moody's prediction which is totally poll-free.
Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206 for Republican Donald Trump, Moody's Analytics predicted on Tuesday in the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would match Obama's margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012.

Messina makes the case that targeted data is more informative than widespread polling. Little Data beats Big Data.

The other supportive piece confirms a point made here more than once: the Red/Blue divide is really an Urban/Rural divide.
"What happens if you abandon the places where most people live?" said Mr. Perlstein, the historian. After its 2012 defeat, the Republican Party wrung its hands over the need to face demographic change in a country that's becoming majority-minority. But geography poses a problem, too: Once-white suburbs are growing more diverse; poverty is spreading there; and central cities that Republicans relinquished are now the country's economic engines.

Thanks to the Obama/DNC stupidity before the 2010 mid-term elections (which provoked the Triage piece), the Right solidified its minority ruling class base through the simple expedient of rampant gerrymandering. It may happen, and perhaps forever, that Democrats win the popular vote, due to my personal definition of "over voting" in cities, yet lose the Electoral College. Once that happens, there's exactly 0 chance of getting a Constitutional elimination of the College. Right wing minority control of governance becomes permanent.

Have a nice day.

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