Your Good Mother, Part The Second

Along similar motivation of the Dee Feat series, herewith the second (for the sake of settling on a number) in our Good Mother series. This report in today's news reminded me of this other device, reported on by "60 Minutes" among others.

So, as Your Good Mother constantly reminds you: "what would the world be like if everybody behaved like you?" (She isn't necessarily literate enough with to know which preposition to use!) Once again, particularly from the Hawaii story, it's quite possible to bring overall degradation to an economy (and its society) by going all in on Rand.

At what point is the individual, especially acting in consort with some number of others, obliged to temper actions based on externalities? For those who worship at the feet of Adam Smith (the real one), the question is a bit more piquant, since his most famous text assumes that there are no externalities! Quants, working as they almost always do, for individual actors (in the context of some market, not humans) are described by micro-economic arguments. Again, externalities are assumed away. Not a good, or honest, thing to do. One might strongly argue that The Great Recession came about just because the quants (at the behest of The Suits) took explicit advantage of the fact that their companies would be protected from meeting the demands of the externalities of what they did. The micro point of view, of course, denies culpability for externalities: "those on the other side of the transaction are obligated to caveat emptor". Again, if everybody does "it", there's no way to mitigate the externalities except by taxing the community at large. And the bad actors get to keep their gains.

Another example, charter schools. Evidence is piling up that charter/private schools, particularly those catering to "inner city" students, don't do any better at educating, overall, than the public schools from which they rob moolah. As with spontaneous cancer remissions (every type has some, small, number of long term survivors), a few success stories of individual students can be cited. I'm always reminded of my local nutball, Linda McMahon, who propounded that, since "she" (actually, her equally nutball hubby) had become a millionaire, everybody else could, too. What such folks neatly elide: if everyone were a millionaire, a loaf of bread would cost everybody $10,000 (give or take a few thousand). Just because one can cite a single success from some policy, doesn't make the policy intelligent for the community. Not that the Rand-ians care about the community.

In all three cases, we have the problem of: divide and conquer (the Big Uns surreptitious way to win), where only those who can afford the individualized alternative get the good/service. The earliest example, in recent history, was White Flight in the 1960s. Suburban communities morphed into wealth by denying the common good; one might even see this as the continuation of Manifest Destiny (a stretch, but not by much). Many Christian schools are rooted in such communities; they don't get the irony, of course.

Now, I'm not a fan of The Power Grid, and never was. The first great blackout happened when I was a child, and I lived in it. To my surprise, the wiki piece does mention the point germane to this missive: Holyoke, an abutting town, had its own standalone powerplant (you can see it from Route 5 or I-91) and got along just fine. The justification for The Grid is load/demand balancing across time/space. I'm not sure of the physics, but transmission loss is not insignificant (the Bloom Energy piece states that avoiding said loss is a meaningful part the advantage). So far as Your Good Mother is concerned: what should be the unit of community where externalities exist? For power, it would seem to be the community (city/town). Holyoke wasn't, and isn't, like the Hamptons with hordes of upper-middle class folks fleeing the hoi polloi. Mostly hoi polloi, in fact.

One could even extend a power grid analysis to the au courant meme: The Cloud. I'll leave that as an exercise to The Reader.

Inbreeding Isn't a Strength

Well, the story is starting to emerge. Here's a version from The Atlantic. Toward the end of the piece we get this:

"A lot of the software is kind of late. It's looking ugly and I go out on this Field call," Kunesh remembered. "And people are like, 'Man, we should fire your bosses man... We gotta get the guys from the DNC. They don't know what the hell you're doing.' I'm sitting there going, 'I'm gonna get another margarita.'"

The problem: it was the DNC guys who screwed the pooch in 2010, and did little to stop the tsunami in state legislatures then or this year. We now have Yankees and Johnny Rebs, in spades. It's just now Coasts versus Crew Cuts. The lackadaisical DNC gave us this. I met with those DNC guys. They let 2010 happen. They aren't the ones to follow.

And then they provided a separate way for the Analytics people, who had very specific needs, to get the data in a different form.

Of course, if they'd used Postgres and PL/R, they'd have had it all together.

Recall from Triage, the observation that getting the response data would be the most costly (and time consuming)?

With Davidsen's help, the Analytics team built a tool they called The Optimizer, which allowed the campaign to buy eyeballs on television more cheaply. They took set-top box (that is to say, your cable or satellite box or DVR) data from Davidsen's old startup, Navik Networks, and correlated it with the campaign's own data. This occurred through a third party called Epsilon: the campaign sent its voter file and the television provider sent their billing file and boom, a list came back of people who had done certain things like, for example, watched the first presidential debate. Having that data allowed the campaign to buy ads that they knew would get in front of the most of their people at the least cost.

And so it was.

This is near the end of the piece. Not the last words, but the last ones that matter:

And losing, they felt more and more deeply as the campaign went on, would mean horrible things for the country. They started to worry about the next Supreme Court Justices while they coded.

If that doesn't connect with you, shame on you.

Dee Feat is in Dee Flation, Part 23

Well, the Producer Price Index is out, both versions, and it's -.2%. That's right campers, the Koch Brothers are dancing in the streets. They gots themselves DEEflation. They must be so happy.

No Moron

The bus driver said, "Full. No more on!" Naturally, she tried to squeeze in. And so it goes for the Right Wingnuts, devoid of even a functioning lower brain stem.

For those that may have missed it, an Arizona woman ran over her hubby, for the grievous error of not voting. Being in Arizona, yes, she was mad that Obambi won and that hubby hadn't voted. The punch line follows:

Arizona's 11 electoral votes were won by Romney.

Are You Bi-Curious?

For those who might be wondering why the Democrats get cranky:

According to the Senate Historian's Office, the number of "cloture petitions" -- a procedural step that sets up a vote to end a filibuster -- was 68 in the two-year session of Congress running from 2005 to 2006, the last time Democrats were in the minority.

But that number has exceeded 100 for each of the past three two-year sessions, all of which have seen Republicans in the minority, peaking at 139 in the 2007-2008 session. There have been 109 in the current 2011-2012 session, with several more weeks of lame duck meetings expected.

Yeah, bipartisanship. Sure.

Jim

We begin, again, with lyrics:

You don't tug on Superman's cape
You don't spit into the wind
You don't pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger
And you don't mess around with Jim
-- Jim Croce

More dirty laundry explaining the Romney Bubble (Yahoo! feed):

"As a result," says Crawford, "they believed that the public/media polls were skewed" in Obama's favor, and rejiggered them to show Romney with "turnout levels more favorable to Romney." In essence, Romney "unskewed" the polls, mirroring widely mocked moves by conservatives to show their candidate with a lead, epitomized by the now-infamous website UnskewedPolls.com.

Much the same as The Great Recession implosion, the Boys In Power decided to invent their own reality. They believed their propaganda. They were convinced that they could re-make the world into their image. They learned from Karl Rove.

That's not the way the world really works anymore. We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.

Can there be anything like a Right Wing quant? Put another way, is it possible for those attached to the Right Wing (including, obviously, Wall Street) to be based in the data? The evidence, so far, is No. These Wall Street quants ignored the most basic of data driving their MBS, CDO, CDS, and other derivatives (income/mortgage ratio). Incompetence of the highest order, but The Boys In Power wanted what they wanted, and their quants were happy to say Yes. Empires fall. The Right Wingnuts have fallen. Could they have won? Not without turning their back on the Tea Party and Rand-ians who have co-opted the party.

Reagan co-opted the so-called blue collar middle class, through the brilliant stratagem of convincing enough of them that, while they were Chosen People, their neighbors were freeloaders who deserved to starve. Steve Jobs was often accused of having a reality distortion field; those that fudge data in order to appease The Boys In Power today, sometimes end up on the losing end of the bargain. Not always, of course, only when the data are important. If they are truly attached to the agenda of the clients. In the usual scheme of things, the quants get their cut up front, of course. I suspect that the devisers of Orca made out very well. If they had built a system which accurately reflected reality (in the data), they would have lost the contract, since it would have contradicted the desires of The Boys In Power. Just as the Wall Street quants were only following orders.

Spinning Wheel

To quote Blood, Sweat, and Tears:

Spinnin' wheel's spinnin' true
Drop all your troubles by the river side
Ride a painted pony,
Let the spinnin' wheel fly.

What goes around, comes around. In order to have a stable economy: those that has, spend; those that spend, has. Previous missives have called bullshit on Germany for extorting further pain from its importing countries. Germany needs these freeloaders to clear its output. The simple fact is, exporting economies have a symbiotic relationship (most often denied, of course) with the countervailing importing countries. One might even posit that the true power rests with the importing countries. Think about it for a minute.

So, today we find this report, that Germany is getting nervous about France, which absorbs a significant proportion of German output. Payback's a bitch.

France has been the number one consumer of German goods for years. In 2011, Germans sold more than 101 billion euros there, about 10 percent of overall exported goods.

Germany invaded France on 10 May 1940. They're doing it again, but now using the cover of the EuroZone. Once a Nazi, always a Nazi.