Your Cheatin Heart - part the tenth

June 15, 2021 


                           New York Times 

                        by A. Corres Pondent 


     RED STATES WITH SPARSE VACCINATIONS EXPLODE WITH COVID 

To the surprise of No One, the Red States, which have been lax in getting their populations vaccinated, are experiencing a resurgence in Covid. The curve started back up on May 14, the day after the CDC and President Biden announced that the fully vaccinated are free to go about their lives without a mask in all venues, not just outdoors.

To the surprise of No One, all those Red State Yahoos immediately dis-masked, even though the majority eligible for vaccines have refused to be vaccinated. If the rest of the country is fortunate, the Yahoos will infect themselves to death.

[update 14 May]
Here's the vaccination record for the states. The bottom of the barrel

At the other end, the five states with the lowest percentage of people with one dose are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming and Idaho.

So, one dose isn't the best measure, but still. Here's the benchmark as of 14 May behind the June 15 lede from the NYT.

Since the point is daily trend, updated to use reported daily cases. Per 100K is only reported, in this source, as 7-day.

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    201     8 

Louisiana      421    10 
 
Alabama        285     6  cases data on the 14th is way whacky, so stick with 7-day average
 
Wyoming         83    12 
 
Idaho          167     9 

We'll stop by the data every now and again to see whether the Oracle turns out to be correct. One actually hopes not, since Covid doesn't respect state lines.

[update 21 May]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    105     5 

Louisiana      340     9 
 
Alabama        443     6 
 
Wyoming         70    14 
 
Idaho          167     9 

[update 28 May]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    131     5 

Louisiana      354     9 
 
Alabama        228     5 
 
Wyoming         96    12 
 
Idaho          135     8 

[update 4 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    141     4 

Louisiana      364     7 
 
Alabama        557     6 
 
Wyoming         80    12 
 
Idaho          166     6 

[update 11 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    236     4 

Louisiana      228     7 
 
Alabama        188     5 
 
Wyoming        103    12 
 
Idaho          118     6 

[update 15 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi     47     4 

Louisiana      559     8 
 
Alabama        290     5 
 
Wyoming         68    11 
 
Idaho           89     5 

[update 18 June]

             cases    per 100K
Mississippi    244     4 

Louisiana      326     6 
 
Alabama        334     4 
 
Wyoming         65     9 
 
Idaho            0     4 

[update 16 June]
Yet another report warning about variants

"The second reason it's concerning is that there is some data to indicate that it may in fact also be more dangerous, may cause more severe illness. That still needs to be understood more clearly, but these are two important concerns and they explain in part ... why this is become the dominant variant in the UK, where over 90% of cases are the Delta variant," Murthy said.

[update 17 June]
Oh shit!! Not only for the drug company, but for the rest of us. CureVac released data from an interim analysis of its mRNA Covid vaccine, and the picture isn't pretty. I've not a whit of interest in CureVac, but this bit did get my attention:

Shares of CureVac CVAC, -3.47% fell 42% in premarket trading on Thurdsay, a day after the German biotech said its COVID-19 vaccine was 47% effective in preventing the disease. CureVac's study, conducted in 10 countries and involving 40,000 people, showed the vaccine's struggle against a "fast changing environment" of at least 29 COVID-19 variants, with the original coronavirus strain "almost completely absent."
my emphasis

As it happens CureVac is also an mRNA vaccine, but is woefully inferior to other types. So, is mRNA in the main, still a magic bullet? Only the shadow knows. Which is to say: if the mRNA in this vaccine didn't instill anti-bodies to Covid, what did it do? Expect the antiVaxxers to predict third arms and second heads to develop in these trial patients. And, of course, this is a recent trial, where original Covid has all but disappeared. If Delta and other nasty strains get into our Bottom Five states, watch out. The pencil neck people will be real life Walking Dead, stalking Liberal Elites in the Northern states.

[update 18 June]
Spent part of the day pondering the status of P.1 from Brazil, but got busy clearing gutters. Should have known. Last time I went looking, it was laying waste. I didn't have to do much searching; here is reporting that just appeared on my CNN front page. As stated here earlier, P.1/Gamma could be the new problem.

Current evidence suggests Gamma can resist the effects of antibody treatments.
In nine states, HHS has halted the distribution of two monoclonal antibody treatments from Eli Lilly and Co, citing reduced effectiveness against both the Gamma and Delta variants.
"Results from in vitro assays that are used to assess the susceptibility of viral variants to particular monoclonal antibodies suggest that bamlanivimab and etesevimab administered together are not active against either the P.1 (Gamma) or B.1.351 (Beta) variants," HHS said on Wednesday.

Mississippi and Alabama continue to progress. We'll see.