Cold Covid - part the twentieth, verion 4

Well, we get a testable prediction from the CDC

An ensemble forecast from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Wednesday predicts that over 62,000 more people could die from Covid-19 over the next four weeks.

Let's keep track from week to week. Here's the count as of 12 January

842,754

Here's the count as of today, 19 January

857,672

Here's the count as of today, 26 January

874,002

Here's the count as of today, 2 February (Groundhog Day, of course)

891,485

So, an increase of 48,813 deaths since 12 January. Three weeks come and gone, and we 'need' 13,269 deaths in the next seven days to meet the prediction. For context, 17,483 is this week's delta. As it has been over the pandemic, deaths are a lagging variable and display rising deltas up to the top of the roller coaster. Looks like we have a winner; we'll top 900,000 body bags next week!