05 August 2022

By The Numbers - part the fourteenth

Since the Religious Right Wingnut Republicans are getting ever more amped up since they got creamed in Kansas, I thought a short reminder of how the Union can be saved is in order. (Aside: the First Civil War started in Kansas from 1854, depending on how you count, just so you know.) It's goes by the name, National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, and it intends to force a majority winner of the popular vote in the Presidential election. So far as I know, anyway. Imagine: California having more say than Montana!
As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia. These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force.
So, twice as many votes as states, by count. The best way to end the drive for Minority Rule, peace Viktor Orban, et al. Not likely to happen before 2024, I suspect. I haven't done the arithmetic, but it's just as likely the Red states could do the same. Here's the list of small, rural states that can tip the College.
Our math went through a few iterations on this but by our final math, in 2012 that could have meant winning the presidency with only around 23 percent of the popular vote.
Note that the list does include a couple Left Wing states that wouldn't (as of today, at least) join:
- Rhode Island
- Connecticut
- DC
- Massachusetts
- and assorted purplish states

So, we can forget signing up Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, DC, Delaware, Vermont, Hawaii, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey, and New Mexico for the Trump/Orban/Erdogan Dictatorship Sweepstakes since they have already signed the Compact. I'll leave as an exercise for the reader to check which 11 next larger states would have to be recruited. Colorado and New Mexico kind of surprised me. States 12 through 16 signed in 2018 and 2019, so the effort remains alive.

The wiki report concedes that there aren't enough Blue states (as of today, but Kansas' result may alter that) to reach 270, so at least all the Purple and perhaps a Red one or two will be needed.

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