27 December 2023

The Oracle of Atlanta

The news has it that JN.1 is already dominant (44.2%) and could get near to Covid-Ο's massive peak. Not claiming that it will meet it. But there's a problem: that assertion is based on CDC's "Nowcast" figure for this week, and that's a stat estimate. The Nowcast is two periods (4 weeks) out from the last 'hard data'. Version 2 of this missive will see how accurate it turns out to be.

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