Cost? or Benefit?

Have any of the readers seen even a back of the envelope B/C analysis of the Trump Wall? You know, that solid concrete sea-to-shining-sea edifice that the Mexicans will pay for? This compilation of estimates, back when The Manchurian President was banging the drum for the Full Monte, gives a 'median' about $25 billion. So, the question is: what else could we do with $25 billion? That article equates to 1.5 nucular aircraft carriers. Not how I would spend that much money, but arguably an alternative 'defense' expenditure.

But another 1.5 aircraft carriers is useless to the task of keeping poor brown folks out of the MAWA USofA. Just how many are there in the invading hordes? Well, not so many. A sieve? Not so much.

Under the Obama administration, the yearly apprehensions on the Southwest border declined by 35 percent from calendar year 2008, the year before President Obama took office, through the end of 2016. In President Donald Trump's first full year in office, the apprehensions declined by 43 percent, from calendar year 2016 to 2017.

So, once again, how many illegals continue to be caught? Not so many as The Manchurian President and his fellow wingnuts proclaim. An invasion of poor on foot? As has been documented widely, they commit crime at a lower level than Rednecks, 2/3 of illegals flew in and overstayed their visas, and they're not going to be taking 'good jobs' from educated white folks. Uneducated shitkickers, fur shur; that's always been true. OTOH, The Manchurian President wants more H1-B entrants; which is to say, stealing jobs from educated Blue State white folks, his sworn enemies.

A spokesperson for the United States Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) told CNN that this change might increase the number of H-1B holders with advanced degrees by as much as 16 percent. By "flipping" the pools, those with a master's degree or higher have two successful shots at a successful H-1B application.

Once again, what could be done with $25 billion to deal with the 'illegal' crisis? What's the opportunity cost? Well, if there are 11,000,000 illegals, and 7,260,000 flew in and just stayed drinking gin, that leaves 3,630,000 or so that walked or swam across the Mexican border since forever. The current estimates are that about 300,000 are apprehended annually. They say that the capture rate is currently 80%, although we don't have the beautiful sea-to-shining-sea 40 foot concrete wall.

In fiscal year 2015, Border Patrol claimed an 81 percent success rate in apprehending or turning back people who attempted to cross illegally.

That means The Wall would keep out up to an additional 60,000/year. Or thereabouts. Furthermore, let's say that previous administrations weren't utter idiots, and they put up barrier where most of the illegals found it easy to get across. In other words, the easy bits have been done, leaving border that is both difficult to cross in its natural state and difficult to build, ditto. In other words, again, The Wall initiative has reached the asymptote of its progress, so let's cut that 60,000 down to 30,000 since no one attempts, or could even try, to cross there.

Now, let's say that $25 billion buys a full wall for a decade without maintenance expense. That leaves $2.5 billion/year, or thereabouts. That works out to be (about) $83,000 per illegal captured. A Guatemalan or Honduran, those that have been the most recent asylum seekers, gets by on... not much. One ex-pat catnip site says $4,800/year in Guatemala. Other data is much lower. And one might infer that those fleeing aren't living so well. In Honduras, it's no better economically and much worse from a human rights' perspective.

But, if we ignore everything but the economic problem, we could stipend all those illegals for decades on $25 billion and still get MAWA. Think about it. Such an initiative fits right in with Socialism for Olde Shitkickers. Do both at once. Why not?