03 February 2024

By The Numbers - part the forty fifth

If you're enamored of real car racing, aka Formula 1, not that 'drive straight, turn left' stupidity that is NASCAR, then you've also heard that The Hammer is going Italian. How will this likely turn out? My take: not well.

First, there is the problem of who's First driver? Leclerc ain't likely to say, 'have at it matey', now is he? Will Ferrrari always give The Hammer the bestest car? May be; after all, Leclerc ain't done all that well, either.

Second, is it reasonable for a 40 year (geezer time in F1, BTW) to win the Championship? Not so much. Here's the list of the oldest ones. Only 3 have been 40+, and that last was 1966. How many races in that season? Just 9, and the other 40+ driver seasons were either 7 or 8 races. Fangio won it 5 times (the table is odd, in that it lists 1954 twice, because Fangio changed teams in mid season), but only once in a 9 race season. Next year: 24, the longest season yet. Make no mistake, driving a F1 racer isn't something Ralph Kramden could do.

Third, Ferrari has been trailing Red Bull and Mercedes forever, so why assume that they'll leap frog both in this, the final 2 years of the formula? Seems unlikely. Then, 2026 brings a new formula (said to be very different from the current), and again, Ferrari is pitching from behind second base. Again. The Hammer will be 41 when the next formula is in force. It's always taken some seasons for teams to figure out the loopholes in the formula, so how old will The Hammer be by then? 43? 44? And for those in the know, a few years back (2019) FIA finally caught Ferrari driving a truck through the regs (they did well for a few seasons, but didn't get a championship).

It appears that The Hammer has been too clever by half.

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